Practicing predictive Process questions

The Process domain is the largest on the exam, about 41 % or roughly 70 scored questions. Some of those questions are set in adaptive contexts, which lesson 6 covers; many are set on predictive projects, where scope, schedule and cost are planned in advance and controlled against baselines. PMP-130 taught planning and PMP-131 taught quality, risk, procurement and integration. This lesson practices the question patterns for predictive work and highlights where candidates most often go wrong.

Predictive questions reward a clear picture of the flow of work: from charter and plans, through execution and monitoring, to change control and closure. Many questions are really about where in that flow the project is, and what document or process applies at that point.

Integration and the project management plan

Integration questions test whether you see the project as a whole. The project charter authorizes the project and names the project manager; the project management plan brings the subsidiary plans and baselines together; the integrated change control process protects the baselines; and closure confirms acceptance, releases resources and records lessons learned. When a question describes a problem that crosses several areas, such as a scope change that also affects cost, risk and stakeholders, the best answer usually involves assessing the integrated impact before deciding.

Scope questions

Scope questions often describe scope creep, gold plating or confusion about requirements. Scope creep is uncontrolled growth in scope without adjustments to time, cost and resources. Gold plating is the team adding extras the customer did not ask for. Both are wrong even when the additions seem valuable, because they bypass change control and add risk. The best answers stop the unauthorized work, assess the impact and route any genuine change through the change control process.

Schedule and cost questions

Schedule questions test the critical path, float, compression and the effect of delays. Crashing adds resources to critical-path activities to shorten them, at a cost; fast tracking overlaps activities that would normally be sequential, at a risk of rework. When asked how to recover a delay with no extra budget, fast tracking is usually the better answer; when asked how to recover it with the least risk and budget is available, crashing the cheapest critical activities first is better. Activities that are not on the critical path cannot shorten the project, however much they are accelerated.

Cost questions test budgets, reserves and earned value. Contingency reserves cover identified risks and sit inside the cost baseline, controlled by the project manager. Management reserves cover unknown unknowns and sit outside the baseline, released by management. A question about using money for a risk that was in the register points to contingency; a question about an unforeseen event points to management reserve, with approval. Lesson 8 practices earned value calculations in detail.

Quality questions

Quality questions distinguish prevention from inspection, quality assurance from quality control, and the cost of conformance from the cost of nonconformance. The exam favors prevention: building quality into processes rather than inspecting defects out. It also favors using data, such as control charts and Pareto analysis, to find causes. On a control chart, a point outside the control limits or a run of seven points on one side of the mean signals that a process may be out of control and needs investigation; a single point inside the limits does not.

Procurement questions

Procurement questions test contract types, the procurement process and contract administration. The key idea is how risk is shared. In a firm fixed price contract the seller bears the cost risk; in cost-reimbursable contracts the buyer does; incentive contracts share it according to an agreed ratio. Time and materials contracts suit work whose scope is hard to define but carry a risk of open-ended cost unless a ceiling is set.

# Buyer's cost for the Project Compass kiosk contract under different contract types ($000).
# Fixed price incentive fee: target cost 300, target fee 30, ceiling price 345, share 70/30 (buyer/seller).
target_cost, target_fee, ceiling, buyer_share = 300, 30, 345, 0.70

def fpif(actual):
    fee = target_fee + (target_cost - actual) * (1 - buyer_share)   # seller keeps 30 % of under-run
    return min(actual + fee, ceiling)

def cpff(actual, fixed_fee=24):
    return actual + fixed_fee

def ffp(actual, price=335):
    return price

pta = (ceiling - (target_cost + target_fee)) / buyer_share + target_cost
print(f"Point of total assumption: {pta:.1f}")
print(f"{'Actual cost':>12}{'FFP':>8}{'FPIF':>8}{'CPFF':>8}")
for actual in (270, 300, 321.4, 340, 370):
    print(f"{actual:>12}{ffp(actual):>8.1f}{fpif(actual):>8.1f}{cpff(actual):>8.1f}")

Point of total assumption: 321.4
 Actual cost     FFP    FPIF    CPFF
         270   335.0   309.0   294.0
         300   335.0   330.0   324.0
       321.4   335.0   345.0   345.4
         340   335.0   345.0   364.0
         370   335.0   345.0   394.0

The program uses the Project Compass kiosk contract from PMP-131: a fixed price incentive fee with target cost $300,000, target fee $30,000, ceiling price $345,000 and a 70/30 buyer-seller share. The point of total assumption, about $321,400, is the cost above which the seller bears every additional dollar. Exam questions may ask for that figure, for the final price at a given actual cost, or for which contract type best suits a situation.

Contract administration questions often involve a seller who is not meeting terms or a dispute. The best answer usually starts with reviewing the contract and communicating formally with the seller through the agreed channel, often the procurement or contracts officer. Claims follow the contract's dispute process, with negotiation preferred and litigation a last resort. A project manager should not direct a seller to do work outside the contract or promise changes without a contract change.

Closing questions

Closing questions test the order and content of closure. Before closing a project or phase, confirm that the work is complete and formally accepted, close any contracts, release resources, archive records and capture lessons learned. If a project is canceled early, it still goes through closure, documenting what was completed and why it stopped. A question that asks what to do when the customer has accepted all deliverables usually points to the remaining closure steps, not to celebrating or reassigning the team immediately.

On US public projects, closure often includes releasing retainage and obtaining lien waivers or confirming that subcontractors have been paid. Exam questions describe this in general terms as completing contract closure and final payments.

Quick patterns for predictive Process questions

• Baselines change only through approved change requests.
• Assess the integrated impact of a change before deciding or escalating.
• Only critical-path activities shorten the project; crash the cheapest first, fast track when budget is tight.
• Contingency is for known risks inside the baseline; management reserve is for unknowns outside it.
• Prevention beats inspection; find root causes with data.
• Review the contract before acting on a seller problem; communicate formally.
• Close every project, including canceled ones.

One more predictive question worked through